In a significant legal development, a Nigerian court ruling on Thursday upheld President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's election victory, bringing an end to a highly contested and protracted election trial that had the potential to push Africa's largest democracy to the brink of a constitutional crisis.

Tinubu had been declared the winner of the February election by the country's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), despite concerns raised by international observers about irregularities in the electoral process.

Opposition candidates, led by Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), who finished as the runner-up in the election, contested the results on the grounds of electoral malpractice and ineligibility. Their case had been dismissed by the Presidential Elections Petitions Tribunal (PEPT) in September, prompting Abubakar's legal team to swiftly file an appeal at Nigeria's highest court, the final recourse for electoral disputes.

In the Thursday ruling, the judges of the Supreme Court rejected this appeal and upheld the lower court's decision. Chief Justice John Okoro, presiding over the case, cited the inability to accept new evidence that Abubakar's legal team had recently acquired through the deposition of a Chicago State University official in a U.S. court.

The evidence, according to analysts, raised questions about Tinubu's educational qualifications, and Abubakar's legal team aimed to use it as proof that the president had presented a forged certificate to INEC, which would constitute a crime under Nigerian law if proven.

However, experts noted that this move came too late in the legal proceedings, making it an ineffective strategy.

“You can’t bring fresh evidence in a case that has already been decided at first instance,” Martin Obono, a lawyer and political commentator told Al Jazeera, referring to the initial decision of the lower election tribunal. The opposition, Obono added, was also unable to strongly prove that Tinubu had lost the elections.

“You have to prove that you won and either your votes did not count, or there was overvoting somewhere,” Obono said. “That is the only way that elections have been upturned in Nigeria, not through these technical issues.”

The decision made on Thursday was expected. In Nigeria's six-decade history, the Supreme Court has never reversed the outcome of a presidential election. But thousands of Nigerians were following the President Tinubu missing credentials case with great interest, drawn in by the drama it created, and it seemed almost like a first.

Mystery certificate

President Tinubu's Controversial Political Career and the Aftermath of the Supreme Court Ruling

President Tinubu's political journey has long been shadowed by controversy, particularly regarding inconsistencies in his credentials. These discrepancies first surfaced after he assumed the role of governor in Lagos in 1999. In a 2002 Supreme Court hearing, his legal team attributed these inconsistencies to a clerical error and invoked his immunity as governor, shielding him from prosecution.

Following the conclusion of his governorship in 2007, the noise surrounding these allegations subsided as his political influence continued to grow. However, these claims resurfaced last year when he declared his intention to run for the presidency.

Accusations have ranged from adopting another person's identity to numerous allegations of corruption during and after his two-term governorship. Questions about the true source of his wealth, with some linking it to narcotics, have also been raised.

His opponents had previously argued that Tinubu was ineligible to run in the February election due to allegations of drug trafficking while residing in Chicago. While U.S. government statements confirmed that Tinubu forfeited $460,000 in 1993 in connection with a drug trafficking syndicate, he was not formally indicted or convicted.

Although a university degree is not a requirement to run for president in Nigeria (the minimum educational qualification being a school leaving certificate or its equivalent), President Tinubu did not submit one.

The Supreme Court's ruling is final under Nigerian law and cannot be overturned. President Tinubu celebrated the decision as a victory, stating that it strengthens his resolve to do more. Nevertheless, opposition parties expressed their dissatisfaction, with supporters of Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who came third in the February election, accusing the top court of not giving due consideration before announcing its decision.

The PDP, led by Abubakar, expressed disappointment and grave concern with the Supreme Court's reasoning. While there was initial speculation about possible further actions, the understanding is that the Supreme Court's judgment is binding and cannot be appealed.

Both Abubakar and Obi are likely to challenge President Tinubu in the next elections scheduled for 2027.

With the election dispute resolved, President Tinubu now faces the pressing challenge of a deteriorating economic outlook. Since assuming office in May, the Nigerian naira has reached historic lows, despite economic reforms announced on his first day as president. Removal of fuel subsidies led to soaring fuel prices, even though Nigeria is a significant oil producer. Food prices have also surged, reaching levels not seen since 2007, according to the World Bank.